Environmental change and connectivity drive coral reef fish abundance in the Western Indian Ocean

Worldwide, coral reefs are facing risk from climate change. The Western Indian Ocean (WIO) harbours about 16% of global coral reefs with highly reef-dependent local communities. Coastal protection and food security depend on effective conservation management, which requires understanding species abundances. Here, we explore how fish group distribution and abundance across the WIO, categorized by their trophic function, are explained by oceanographic connectivity, sea surface temperature (SST), and chlorophyll a. We designed a proportional oceanographic connectivity metric describing the relative strength of connectivity between all WIO coral reefs and each survey site. We created statistical models for four trophic groups: grazers and detritivores, herbivorous excavators, corallivores, and primary piscivores across 51 sites in the WIO. We show that SST and chlorophyll a are strong predictors of all trophic fish groups and that the proportional oceanographic connectivity metric improved the model predictions significantly for grazers and detritivores and excavators. For excavators, peak abundances were predicted at medium connectivity, and for grazers and detritivores, at low and medium connectivity, suggesting that larvae dispersal predominates at a local scale. Decision making should include connectivity for efficient conservation area prioritization, for which our proportional oceanographic connectivity metric is a valid and useful parameter.